Research Recap Twitter Update Highlights

Google, Apple gain smartphone share at expense of Palm, RIM and Microsoft (comScore)

TALF losses from CMBS could exceed $500m for US Treasury in the worst case scenario (GAO via FT Alphaville)

Assets of the largest 1,000 banks in the world grew by 6.8% in FY 2008/2009 to a record $96.4 trillion (IFSL)

Hulu Surpasses 1 Billion Monthly Video Streams for First Time (comScore)

Toyota still has great strengths, not least financial, but it has lost something precious and may never get it back (The Economist)

“Whether Bank of America’s conduct rises to the level of fraud, rather than mere stupidity … is the real question in the case” (NYTimes)

Why Some Homeowners Hope For Foreclosure (NPR)

“Berkshire “downgrade underscores the innate risk of the financial industry,” – Stifel Nicolaus

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Leave a comment : February 8th, 2010 : Credit Research, Economic Research, Equity Research, Industry Research

S&P says European CMBS market remains under severe stress, downgrades 43 more tranches

Standard & Poor’s today lowered its credit ratings on 43 European commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tranches and affirmed 19 ratings.
“The rating changes result from our assessment of the effect on these transactions of the unprecedented events in European real estate, including drops in property values in some markets that have exceeded those of the [...]

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Leave a comment : February 8th, 2010 : Credit Research

Recall Recap: Hyundai Piles on Toyota in Superbowl Ads

We’ve been writing about Hyundai Motor Company’s rising fortunes since October, but it just keeps getting better for the Korean automaker.
Hyundai’s recent “best warranty” ad campaign turns out to remarkably prescient in view of Toyota’s recall problems.  And Hyundai’s heavy advertising presence in the Superbowl for the third straight [...]

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Leave a comment : February 8th, 2010 : Equity Research, Industry Research

US Prime Jumbo RMBS delinquency rate could top 10% as early as next month

U.S. prime jumbo loan performance continued to weaken in January as serious delinquencies rose for the 32nd consecutive month, according to Fitch Ratings.
Although prime jumbo loan delinquencies began to rise in the second quarter of 2007, they accelerated in 2009 nearly tripling over the course of the year. Florida saw the biggest monthly jump of [...]

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Leave a comment : February 8th, 2010 : Credit Research, Economic Research

Outlook improving for hedge funds, but uncertainty remains

Moody’s says the hedge fund industry is showing signs of a recovery from the crisis and this is likely to continue in the near term. In a new Industry Outlook for 2010 available for complimentary download the rating agency says that the positive trends merit a degree of caution, especially as a number [...]

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Leave a comment : February 8th, 2010 : Credit Research, Equity Research, Industry Research

US CMBS delinquency rate hits 6%, and is headed higher

The delinquent status of the Extended Stay America loan was a large contributor to a 129 basis-point increase in overall U.S. CMBS delinquencies last month to 6%, according to Fitch Ratings.
‘While the Extended Stay loan is a significant contributor to the increase in delinquencies, a steady up-tick in all [...]

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Leave a comment : February 5th, 2010 : Credit Research

Leading economic indicators at or near long-term trends in all major economies

OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for December 2009 provide stronger signals of an expansionary economic outlook than last month.
CLIs for the G7 economies as well as China, India, Russia and Brazil, are now all close to, or above, their long-term trends. In all these countries, industrial production – [...]

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Leave a comment : February 5th, 2010 : Economic Research

Moody’s continues to have longer term concerns about banks with outsized CRE concentrations

But despite elevated losses from commercial real estate loans, Moody’s does not expect to make system-wide rating downgrades.
Moody’s estimates that rated U.S. banks hold 50% of total CRE loans and will incur CRE losses of $120 billion from 2008 through 2011. This sum represents a loss rate of approximately 17% on the banks’ year-end [...]

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Leave a comment : February 5th, 2010 : Credit Research

Do Toyota’s problems herald an era of more frequent recalls?

We don’t want to add to the already overheated panic over Toyota’s accelerator and braking problems, but should we expect an increase in recalls across the industry as cars get more complex and dependent on electronics and software?
On the heels of Toyota’s accelerator pedal recall and Prius braking issues, [...]

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Leave a comment : February 5th, 2010 : Equity Research, Industry Research

Will U.S. Corporate Borrowers Clear Refinancing Hurdles?

About $480 billion of corporate debt is coming due this year, with another $568 billion maturing in 2011.  Standard & Poor’s provides its perspective in this Q&A, which is available for complimentary download from the Alacra Store.
Selected Excerpts:

We expect investment-grade nonfinancial issuers–with almost $93 billion due in 2010–to have [...]

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Leave a comment : February 5th, 2010 : Credit Research