MIT Model Measures Emission Cap Economic Impact
The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has developed a model to determine how costs associated with mandatory cap-and-trade greenhouse gas emission control systems might affect the US economy. While the program does not endorse any individual bill, the analysis could lend insight into potential climate consequences and the rough effects on prices and consumers.
The MIT model predicts that if no action is taken, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions will double by 2050, with global levels growing even faster and continuing to rise for the rest of the century.
Global temperatures would rise by 3.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees above current levels by 2100
The more ambitious of the Congressional proposals could limit this increase to around 2 degrees Centigrade, but only if other nations, including developing nations, also strongly control greenhouse gas emissions.
The model shows that the cost of meeting the proposed targets for the most stringent of the mandatory emissions caps would be equivalent to losing somewhat less than a year of economic growth through mid-century. The proposals would increase the price of carbon dioxide to $30 to $50 per ton in 2015, rising to $120 to $210 by 2050.
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