Hard Choices Ahead To Meet 50% Increase in Energy Needs
The U.S. and the world face some tough choices in order to meet an expected 50% increase in energy consumption in the next 25 years, according to a massive new study from the US National Petroleum Council.
Commissoned by the U.S. Department of Energy, the 400+ page study delivered July 18 says the U.S. and the world face hard truths about the global energy future that will require “all economic, environmentally responsible energy sources to assure adequate, reliable supply.”
The 18-month study of global energy to 2030 involved more than 350 experts from diverse backgrounds and organizations—the majority of them from outside the oil and gas industry.
One theme that comes through clearly in the report is that the U.S . cannot solve its energy problems alone:
“Energy Independence” should not be confused with strengthening energy security, the report says. “The concept of energy independence is not realistic in the foreseeable future, whereas U.S. energy security can be enhanced by moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment.”
There can be no U.S. energy security without global energy security.
The study has several specific recomendations for the U.S. including tightening automobile and light truck fuel economy standards. “The 4 percent annual gain in CAFE standards starting in 2010 that President George W. Bush suggested in his 2007 State of the Union speech is not inconsistent with a potential doubling of fuel economy for new light duty vehicles by 2030,” the report notes.
It should be possible to lower U.S. oil demand by about 3-5 million barrels per day by 2030.
The study also urges a coordinated and transparent approach to carbon taxes. As policymakers consider options to reduce CO2 emissions, they should “provide an effective, global framework for carbon management, including establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for CO2 emissions.”
The study also recommend the U.S.:
- Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses
- Expand and diversify production from clean coal, nuclear, biomass, other renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas
- Moderate the decline of conventional domestic oil and gas production; and increase access for development of new resources
- Integrate energy policy into trade, economic, environmental, security, and foreign policies
- Strengthen global energy trade and investment
- Broaden dialogue with both producing and consuming nations to improve global energy security
- Enhance science and engineering capabilities and create long-term opportunities for research and development in all phases of the energy supply and demand system
- Develop the legal and regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
An executive summary and the full report Facing the Hard Truths about Energy: A Comprehensive View to 2030 of Global Oil and Natural Gas is available from National Petroleum Council.
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August 15th, 2008 at 11:35 am
[...] a post from more than a year ago, where the National Petroleum Council noted the world would face Hard Choices Ahead to Meet 50% Increase in Energy Needs. Fast-forward a year from that story and the picture appears, if anything, even more [...]