China, India Fueling “Alarming” Growth In Energy Demand
World energy needs could grow by an “alarming” 50% or more by 2030 if governments stick with current policies, the International Energy Agency warns. China and India together account for 45% of the increase in demand in the IEA’s “Reference Scenario” in its World Energy Outlook 2007, which pays special attention to these two nations.
The world’s primary energy needs in the are projected to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030, at an average annual rate of 1.8% per year.
Demand is projected to reach 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030, compared with 11.4 billion toe in 2005. Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of primary energy, accounting for 84% of the overall increase in demand between 2005 and 2030. Oil remains the single largest fuel, though its share in global demand falls from 35% to 32%. Oil demand reaches 116 million barrels per day in 2030 – 32 mb/d, or 37%, up on 2006.
In line with the spectacular growth of the past few years, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73% between 2005 and 2030 and pushing its share of total energy demand up from 25% to 28%. Most of the increase in coal use arises in China and India. The share of natural gas increases more modestly, from 21% to 22%.
Electricity use doubles, its share of final energy consumption rising from 17% to 22%. Some $22 trillion of investment in supply infrastructure is needed to meet projected global demand. Mobilising all this investment will be challenging, the IEA says.
Other key findings from the Report:
World oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet the projected growth in demand to 2030, with output becoming more concentrated in OPEC countries – on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming. Their collective output of conventional crude oil, natural gas liquids and non-conventional oil (mainly gas-to-liquids) is projected to climb from 36 mb/d in 2006 to 46 mb/d in 2015 and 61 mb/d in 2030.
As a result OPEC’s share of world oil supply jumps from 42% now to 52% by the end of the projection period.
The resurgence of coal, driven primarily by booming power-sector demand in China and India, is a marked departure from past WEOs. Higher oil and gas prices are making coal more competitive as a fuel for baseload generation. China and India, which already account for 45% of world coal use, drive over four-fifths of the increase to 2030 in the Reference Scenario.
Rising global energy demand poses a real and growing threat to the world’s energy security. In the Reference Scenario, China’s and India’s combined oil imports surge, from 5.4 mb/d in 2006 to 19.1 mb/d in 2030 – more than the combined imports of Japan and the United States today. Ensuring reliable and affordable supply will be a formidable challenge.
Growing fossil-fuel use will continue to drive up global energy-related CO2 emissions over the projection period. In the Reference Scenario, emissions jump by 57% between 2005 and 2030. China is by far the biggest contributor to incremental emissions, overtaking the United States as the world’s biggest emitter in 2007. India becomes the third-largest emitter by around 2015. However, China’s per-capita emissions in 2030 are only 40% of those of the United States
Urgent action is needed if greenhouse-gas concentrations are to be stabilised at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Exceptionally quick and vigorous policy action by all countries, and unprecedented technological advances, entailing substantial costs, would be needed to make CO2 emissions peak by 2015 and to fall between 50% and 85% below 2000 levels by 2050.
An Executive Summary is available for no charge at the IEA website. The full World Energy Outlook 2007 is also available at the IEA’s Online Bookshop..
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