Clean Energy Could Provide 16% of World Needs by 2030
Renewable power capacity could grow from 3% to 16% of global capacity by 2030 and biofuels from less than 2% to 16% of the total road transportation fuels market.
That’s the prediction of Cambridge Energy Research Associates under what it calls a “Launch Pad” scenario, featuring strong energy prices, growing public pressure to control CO2 emissions, and a stable investment environment.
However, under a more conservative “Global Fissures” scenario, weaker global economic growth coupled with increasing global tensions and political insecurity could lead to an uneven outlook for clean energy technologies. In this scenario, renewable power capacity grows to 7% of the global power mix, but nuclear power experiences little growth and carbon capture and storage technology fails to develop commercially by 2030, CERA says in Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy.
CERA also models an “Asian Phoenix scenario” wherein the global balance of geopolitical and economic power shifts to Asia, expanding Asia ’s role as both consumer and exporter of clean energy technologies. Although concerns over climate change influence political agendas, a global patchwork of uncoordinated policies result in inconsistent government support programs leading to periods of fits and starts for private investment flows, and limiting technological and commercial breakthroughs, CERA says. Renewable power grows to 10% of global capacity and biofuels capture 7% of the market for road transportation fuels.
CERA says rapid economic growth may push Asian energy needs from 30% of current global demand to 40% by 2030; combined with its manufacturing cost-competitiveness, this could make Asia a nexus for clean energy technology research, development and equipment production.
We are seeing a major shift in public opinion, reinforced by the expectation that carbon policies could fundamentally change the competitive landscape of the global energy business. - Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman
CERA’s analysis reaches the following conclusions:
- There is already a “bubbling” of clean energy clusters – Some places are becoming concentrations of political, technical, institutional and financial clean energy specialization and experience. Examples include Brazil in biofuels, Germany in photovoltaic (PV) technology, Spain in wind technologies.
- Renewable power technologies are poised for substantial growth – Wind will make the largest gains, followed by solar power and biomass—despite near-term bottlenecks in wind turbine manufacturing, supply shortages in silicon, and competitive pressures from escalating component costs.
- Government policy remains a key driver for clean energy advancement – Putting a price on CO2 emissions, setting mandates, and providing subsidies all work to kick-start clean energy technologies by overcoming the economic advantage of conventional technologies.
- Conventional emission-free technologies – Nuclear and hydroelectric generation will account for most of the clean energy impact for the next decade, and almost half the gross clean power additions by 2030.
However, CERA warns that clean energy technology could have a disruptive rather than incremental impact. Modular and distributed PV could disrupt traditional central-station models of electricity production and distribution. Breakthroughs in cellulosic ethanol can disrupt the traditional vehicle fuel system if scale, logistics, and costs prove manageable. Conventional biofuel feedstocks, such as grains and oilseeds, may also produce serious unintended consequences such as disruption in global agricultural prices as well as land and water use patterns, as well as a policy backlash.
A recent Biodiesel Finance and Investment Summit in New York grappled with many of the issues the industry faces. According to ScribeMedia, the big news from the summit was that the biodiesel industry must evolve in order to remain viable.
The major players in the biodiesel space are presently arriving at a series of crossroads that primarily concern the adoption and development of future feedstocks, technological advancements and alternative business models.
Developing and sourcing the next generation of feedstocks dominated discussion in terms of urgency and analysis. Among the list of feedstocks currently being explored as substitutes to the now dominant soy- and palm-based operations, inedible livestock tallow (fat), as well as white and yellow grease, were discussed with great frequency.
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February 8th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
[...] Other topics bubbling up include comScore’s Politics, Women’s Internet Sites Fastest Growing in 2007 and CERA’s projection that Clean Energy Could Provide 16% of World Needs by 2030. [...]