Big City Strategy is Key to Managing China’s Urban Growth
As its urban population almost doubles from 2005 to 1 billion people by 2030, China should focus on boosting the productivity of large cities to mitigate the negative effects of growth on the planet. That’s the recommendation of the Mckinsey Global Institute in recently released study of what this explosive demographic change entails, and how policy makers should oversee China’s growth.
China will add more than 350 million people to its urban population by 2025, more than the population of today’s United States.
“The policy choices that China’s leaders make at national and local levels can alter the shape of urbanization significantly. MGI finds that an urgent shift in focus from solely driving GDP growth to an agenda of boosting urban productivity—achieving the same or better economic results with fewer resources—is not only an opportunity but a necessity. ”
221 Chinese cities will have more than 1 million+ people living in them by 2030 - Europe has 35 today .
MGI says the need to shift Chinese policy in the appropriate direction is important for every citizen on the globe: “By moving in this direction, China would cut its public spending requirement by 2.5 percent of GDP or 1.5 trillion renminbi a year, reduce SO2 and NOx emissions by upward of 35 percent, halve its water pollution, and deliver private sector savings equivalent to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2025 mainly through reduced natural resource consumption.”
At the heart of the study’s recommendations is a focus on the benefits of extremely large cities, such as Shanghai, as opposed to a more distributed growth strategy. The study notes several specifics:
- Larger cities attract more talent and investment than small and medium-sized urban areas
- City “network effects” stimulate economic growth
- There is a more efficient use of energy in densely urban environments
- Public transportation is more efficient
- Less arable land is lost
- Better control over pollution
- 20% higher GDP per capita than some other approaches
The study, accompanied by an interactative graphic overview, holds out hope that “China can mitigate the financial, environmental and social costs of urbanization while still realizing its full economic potential.”
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