Research Zeitgeist: Bracing for the Long Slog Ahead
The global economy is unlikely to rebound quickly, at least based upon Research Recap reader preferences this week.
The most widely read post was Oxford Analytica’s Credit Crisis to Persist Until 2010 which pointed to continued calls on capital as banks are forced to recognize more bad loans and the US housing bellwether as factors that will drag on the global economy well into 2009 and possibly beyond. Meanwhile, Fitch notes that prime credit card chargeoff rates are up 40% from a year ago and are likely to hit 7% by year-end, compared to 3% in early 2006. Further evidence that the credit crunch has hit main street comes from a Telegraph article highlighting a pub bartering pints of beer for agricultural products or game.
The other major economic factor is energy, driving readers to a post from more than a year ago, where the National Petroleum Council noted the world would face Hard Choices Ahead to Meet 50% Increase in Energy Needs. Fast-forward a year from that story and the picture appears, if anything, even more bleak.
Ernst & Young highlights a bright spot in the energy picture as US Cleantech VC Investing achieved a record high in the second quarter. While Congress has yet to act on renewal of soon-to-expire solar credits, it seems that the investment community sees the economic viability of green energy sources, aided by state-level initiatives such as California’s 20% renewable mandate.
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