EU Population over Age 65 to Reach 30% by 2060
Eurostat has released some startling projections about the aging of the European Community’s population.
According to the Statistical Office of the European Communities, by 2060, 30% of the population of the 27 EU countries will be over 65. This means that the ratio of “old age” people to the working population will rise to 53% from 25% currently.
In other words, there would be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today.
The old age dependency ratio is projected to be more than 60% in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia, and less than 45% in Denmark, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom.
The UK, projected to have the highest EU population, has a higher fertility rate and has been more open to immigration than many other EU countries.
From 2015 onwards deaths in the EU would outnumber births, and hence population growth due to natural increase would cease, EuroStat projects. From this point onwards, positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to fall.
Commenting on the report, the New York Times blog The Lede notes that the trend could lead to “geriatric peace” in which arms spending is reduced in order to support a larger aging population.
Could the trend lead to a more welcoming attitude to immigrants, who tend to be younger? A new survey from Harvard finds that effects of immigration in Northern European countries has been more positive than generally perceived.
The general view on immigration overstates the adverse effects of immigration on natives of the host country.
Within the large empirical literature looking at the effects of immigration on native employment and wages, most studies find only minor displacement effects even after very large immigrant flows.
(H/T AgePays)
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