Research Zeitgeist: Third Quarter Top Posts
As in the previous quarter, the global credit crisis dominated Research Recap’s Top Ten Posts of the third quarter, with only one post not related in some way to the market meltdown. Many of the posts turned out to be prescient, led by Fitch Ratings’ July warning that US Mortgage Insurers’ Troubles May Worsen. This prediction was borne out this month when Moody’s put several of the insurers on watch for possible downgrade.
In the runner-up spot was NERA Economic Consulting’s July report Subprime-Related Litigation on the Rise, which was buttressed by a Stanford Law School analysis showing that subprime lawsuits were running at double last year’s pace.
The bronze medal goes to the lone non-financial post, Ernst & Young’s July report US Oil Production Flat Over Past 4 Years, published near the peak of the recent oil price spike.
The fourth place post based on the International Monetary Fund’s December 2007 report examining the Role of Hedge Funds in Subprime Crisis Examined is approaching Hall-of-Fame status, consistently featuring among our top posts nine months after it was first published. The IMF also featured in the fifth place post in which Oxford Analytica drew on IMF and OECD data in September to conclude that Speculation Does Not Explain Apparent Housing Overvaluation.
The sixth place post based on a June Moody’s report, Global Junk Bond Default Rate Doubled in First Five Months, now seems modest. Standard & Poors now expects the speculative default rate to triple in the next 12 months. Standard & Poor’s served up the seventh most popular post, in which the ratings agency accurately assessed that Lehman Failure’s Impact on European Banks would be significant.
In what now seems like understatement, the eighth place post based on a June report from Audit Integrity was also right on the money: Credit Default Swaps Adding Rather Than Mitigating Risk? Moody’s July Guide To Interpreting Mark-to-Market Losses of Monolines took the ninth spot.
In what may now seem like wishful thinking, rounding out the top ten on a more optimistic note was KPMG’s July report Greentech Expected to Lead Resurgence of IPOs in 2010.
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