Big Democratic Victory May Not Result in Sharp Left Turn
Even if the democratic party wins the White House and expands its majorities in Congress in next week’s elections, a major shift to the left on domestic policy is unlikely to materialize, according to Oxford Analytica.
The most likely election outcomes have strong echoes of the 1992 contest, OxAn says in a new report. “On that occasion, Bill Clinton defeated the elder President George Bush by just under 5% of the popular vote, the Democrats held some 257 seats in the House of Representatives, and commanded 57 seats in the Senate. However, this outcome did not result in Democratic hegemony over either domestic or foreign policy; indeed, the Republicans rebounded with a crushing victory in mid-term congressional elections two years later.”
This suggests that predictions of a third-wave of ‘liberalism’ — on the scale of the New Deal or Great Society-eras — is very premature.
“History suggests that the passage of major legislation does not necessarily correspond to periods of single party control, or come via congressional votes along partisan lines. Obama’s ambitious legislative agenda, including major healthcare reform, is unlikely to pass without some Republican support. Democratic dominance in Washington would not, of itself, lead to a significant transformation of domestic policy. Implementing the most ambitious elements of the party’s agenda, particularly healthcare reform, will still be very challenging. However, solid Democratic control on Capitol Hill would allow a president of the same party considerable leeway abroad.”
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