Ukraine Has Worst Refinancing Risk Ranking in Europe
Despite recent borrowing binges, Moody’s believes most European countries have limited sovereign debt refinancing risk, with the exception of some countries in eastern Europe.
In a new Special Comment, Moody’s introduces its Government Refinancing Risk Indicators (GRRI/GRRI+), which examine the interplay of refinancing volumes and market access.
“The analysis indicates that the only countries exhibiting refinancing risk are those whose refinancing needs are concurrently constrained in their ability to tap the market. Hence, the majority of European countries rated by Moody’s have limited refinancing risk. This holds particularly true for EMU countries and the Aaa-rated euro “outs” of Sweden, Denmark and the UK.”
However, some countries, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), are more vulnerable than others.
When we combine government and external refinancing pressures, a handful of countries stand out: we see considerable refinancing risk in the case of Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary show elevated risk levels.
For details see: European Sovereigns Face Differentiated Refinancing Risk.
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