Commercial Loans to Bear Brunt of Future US Bank Losses
McKinsey expects the US banking and securities industry to incur losses averaging $125 billion per quarter through 2010, with the bulk of it concentrated in commercial banking loans.
McKinsey research estimates that total credit losses on US-originated debt from mid-2007 through the end of 2010 will probably be in the range of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion, given the severity of the current recession. Some $1 trillion of these losses has already been realized, McKinsey says in a review of the banking industry.
“Since US banks hold about half of US-originated debt, the US banking and securities industry will incur about $750 billion to $1 trillion of the remaining $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion of projected losses on this debt, which includes residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, credit card losses, and high-yield/leveraged debt, McKinsey says. These numbers are in the same range as those of the US government, which calculated a $600 billion high-end estimate of credit losses for the 19 largest institutions.”
Since the middle of 2007, the US banking and securities industry has absorbed some $490 billion of losses, or $80 billion per quarter.
If the industry incurs additional losses of $1 trillion in 2009 and 2010, the losses will be about $125 billion a quarter … these losses will be concentrated in commercial-banking loans.
Importantly, many of these losses will be concentrated in the banks that the stress tests revealed to be undercapitalized, McKinsey says. The five most undercapitalized major banks under the stress tests were Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), GMAC LLC (NYSE: GJM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).
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