“Green Shoots” Growing Only Slowly in Most OECD Countries
Analyzing the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators, Boston Consulting Group finds that “genuine green shoots were emerging in some regions in the second quarter of 2009. However, there is nothing in the data to suggest that a strong recovery is imminent.”
BCG says the OECD’s CLIs have proven reasonably accurate in foreshadowing previous recoveries. “Outside of China, where output is already growing relatively strongly …. recovery appears more likely in the United Kingdom and parts of the eurozone.”
Strong and enduring recoveries, even in those economies displaying the “greenest shoots” would appear unlikely until the global powerhouses Japan and the United States also begin to recover.
The full analysis is available here.
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