Green Shoots Getting Greener in Most OECD Countries
OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for May 2009 point to tangible signs of improvement in the outlook of most OECD economies, with the notable exception of Japan and Brazil.
“Potential recovery signals are emerging in Italy and France, with indications of troughs emerging in Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States, China and India. The trough signals are more tentative in Russia,” according to the OECD.
The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.8 point in May 2009 but was 7.3 points lower than in May 2008.
The CLI for the United States increased by 1.0 point in May but was 9.4 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI was up by 1.0 point in May but stood 4.7 points lower than a year ago. In May, the CLI for Japan decreased by 0.3 point and was 14.1 points lower than a year ago.
The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.8 point in May 2009 but was 2.7 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for China rose 1.1 point in May 2009 but was 6.5 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India increased by 1.4 point in May 2009 but was 4.4 points lower than in May 2008. The CLI for Russia was up by 0.7 point in May but was 20.7 points lower than a year ago. In April 2009 the CLI for Brazil decreased by 0.8 point and was 13.7 points lower than a year ago.
An analysis by Boston Consulting Group featured on Research Recap found that the OECD’s CLIs are a fairly good predictor of economic activity a few months in the future.
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