Economic recovery solidifies throughout OECD countries
Looks like the recovery is for real: another month of solid signs of improvement in OECD countries and major non-members.
OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for October 2009 continue to point to a recovery in OECD economies; with the CLIs for Canada, France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom pointing more strongly to recovery than in last month‟s assessment. Financial components (the spread of interest rates, EONIA, EURIBOR, M1) and business confidence are the main drivers to the CLI‟s performance in these countries.
All major non member economies are in a recovery phase.
The change in the outlook for China compared to last month‟s release is mainly due to a downward revision in the “Imports from Asia” component, the OECD said. To avoid confusion, it is important to note that the reference to “more strongly‟ is in the context of the likelihood of recovery rather than the strength of the recovery per se.
The CLI for the OECD area increased by 1.0 point in October 2009 and was 5.7 points higher than in October 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 1.0 point in October, 3.9 points higher than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.3 point in October, 8.8 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.2 point in October, 2.2 points higher than a year ago. Other country data is here.
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